Chu kỳ suy thoái NBER 1 bằng đang suy thoái theo Chỉ báo suy thoái kinh tế Mỹ

Chu kỳ suy thoái NBER 1 bằng đang suy thoái theo Chỉ báo suy thoái kinh tế Mỹ kỳ 06-2026 đạt 0 0/1, theo FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Đây là chỉ tiêu thuộc bảng Quy tắc Sahm (Giá trị · Tháng), với chuỗi số liệu đầy đủ từ 01-1900 đến 06-2026. Chuỗi số liệu đầy đủ và biểu đồ tương tác, tải về miễn phí.

Nguồn: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Cập nhật cuối: 26-07-2026 19:19

Chỉ tiêu này trong bảng Quy tắc Sahm

Chỉ tiêu06-202605-202604-202603-202602-202601-202612-202511-202510-202509-2025
Chu kỳ suy thoái NBER (1 = đang suy thoái)0000000000
Chỉ báo Sahm (thời gian thực)0,070,10,130,20,270,30,350,430,23
Xác suất suy thoái (mô hình Chauvet - Piger)0,540,260,320,160,180,120,481,160,92

Chu kỳ suy thoái NBER 1 bằng đang suy thoái theo Chỉ báo suy thoái kinh tế Mỹ theo năm

NămBình quân±Cao nhấtThấp nhấtT1T2T3T4T5T6T7T8T9T10T11T12
20260·00000000······
20250·00000000000000
20240·00000000000000
20230·00000000000000
20220·00000000000000
20210−100%00000100%0100%00000000
20200,17·10001100000000
20190·00000000000000
20180·00000000000000
20170·00000000000000
20160·00000000000000
20150·00000000000000
20140·00000000000000
20130·00000000000000
20120·00000000000000
20110·00000000000000
20100−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%000000
20090,5−50%101+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
20081·11111111111111
20070·00000000000000
20060·00000000000000
20050·00000000000000
20040·00000000000000
20030·00000000000000
20020−100%000000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0
20010,67·10000111111110
20000·00000000000000
19990·00000000000000
19980·00000000000000
19970·00000000000000
19960·00000000000000
19950·00000000000000
19940·00000000000000
19930·00000000000000
19920−100%000100%0100%0100%000000000
19910,25−40%1011100000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19900,42·10000000011111
19890·00000000000000
19880·00000000000000
19870·00000000000000
19860·00000000000000
19850·00000000000000
19840·00000000000000
19830−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0
19820,92+120%1011111111+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%0100%
19810,42−16,67%1000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%11111
19800,5·10011111100000
19790·00000000000000
19780·00000000000000
19770·00000000000000
19760−100%000100%0100%0100%000000000
19750,25−75%101+0%1+0%1+0%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19741+1.100%11111111111111+0%
19730,08·10000000000001
19720·00000000000000
19710−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0
19700,92·10111111111110
19690·00000000000000
19680·00000000000000
19670·00000000000000
19660·00000000000000
19650·00000000000000
19640·00000000000000
19630·00000000000000
19620−100%000100%0100%0000000000
19610,17−75%1011000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19600,67·10000011111111
19590−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%00000000
19580,33+0%10111100000100%0100%0100%0100%
19570,33·10000000001111
19560·00000000000000
19550−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0000000
19540,42+0%1011111000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19530,42·10000000011111
19520·00000000000000
19510·00000000000000
19500−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%00
19490,83+900%10111111111100100%
19480,08·10000000000001
19470·00000000000000
19460−100%00000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%00
19450,67·10001111111100
19440·00000000000000
19430·00000000000000
19420·00000000000000
19410·00000000000000
19400·00000000000000
19390−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%000000
19380,5−14,29%10111111+0%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19370,58·10000001111111
19360·00000000000000
19350·00000000000000
19340−100%000100%0100%0100%000000000
19330,25−75%101+0%1+0%1+0%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19321+0%111+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%
19311+0%111+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%
19301+200%11111111111+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%
19290,33·10000000001111
19280−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0
19270,92+450%1011111111111+0%0100%
19260,17·10000000000011
19250−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%00000
19240,58+0%10111111+0%1+0%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19230,58·10000001111111
19220−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%00000
19210,58−36,36%1011+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19200,92+266,67%100100%1+0%1+0%111111111
19190,25−25%10111000000100%0100%0100%0100%
19180,33·10000000001111
19170·00000000000000
19160·00000000000000
19150−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19141+9,09%1111+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%
19130,92+1.000%100100%11111111111
19120,08−91,67%101+0%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19111+9,09%1111+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%
19100,92·10011111111111
19090−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%000000
19080,5−14,29%10111111+0%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19070,58·10000001111111
19060·00000000000000
19050−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0000
19040,67−33,33%101+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%1+0%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19031+300%111111111111+0%1+0%1+0%
19020,25·10000000000111
19010−100%000100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%0100%
19001·11111111111111

127 năm số liệu, đơn vị 0/1. Cột Bình quân là trung bình các kỳ trong năm, cột ± so với bình quân năm trước. Số nhỏ dưới mỗi ô là mức so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Xem chuỗi đầy đủ trên biểu đồ ở đầu trang hoặc tại bảng Quy tắc Sahm.

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